Securing the future: funding health and social care to the 2030s Cost pressures on the NHS are set to grow: a long-term funding solution is needed, likely through tax increases
May 2018
Key findings
- Just to maintain current service levels, UK health spending will need to increase by £95bn by 2033/34, rising from 7.3% of national income this year to 8.9% of national income – increases of 3.3% a year.
- But if the government wishes to improve NHS services, including meeting waiting times targets and addressing under-provision in mental health services, increases of approximately 4% a year will be needed.
- Some catch-up money will be needed over the next five years to maintain services and address the backlog of funding problems. This will require funding to grow by 5% a year, before falling back to levels closer to the historic trend of 3.7%.
- Meeting these pressures will almost certainly require tax increases, as cuts in spending on other services are unsustainable following eight years of austerity.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies and the Health Foundation have undertaken research to look at how much health spending would need to rise to provide the level of service it does today and how much it would need to modernise and improve for the future.
These findings are the result of careful ‘bottom-up’ modelling of supply and demand factors in the health and social care sectors including demographic change, population health and cost data. The research was carried out by researchers from the Health Foundation and the Institute for Fiscal Studies, in association with the NHS Confederation.
Downloads
Further reading
Research report
A fork in the road: Next steps for social care funding reform
Our new report looks into the costs of social care funding options, public attitudes to them, and...
You might also like...
Press release
Boris Johnson didn’t ‘fix social care’ - the next PM must
Response from the Health Foundation on the Levelling-Up, Housing and Communities Committee report...
Podcast
A tale of two hospitals: the pandemic and its aftermath in Berlin and London – with Professor Heyo Kroemer and Professor Tim Orchard
Episode 22. Professor Heyo Kroemer of the Charité in Berlin and Professor Tim Orchard of Imperial...
Event
Party conference schedule 2022
The Health Foundation will be holding multiple fringe events and partnering with other organisations...
Work with us
We look for talented and passionate individuals as everyone at the Health Foundation has an important role to play.
View current vacanciesThe Q community
Q is an initiative connecting people with improvement expertise across the UK.
Find out more